A report from industry analysts DFC Intelligence warns that Microsoft's motion control peripheral will have a negligible impact. It also states that the Xbox 360 in general is on the downside of its lifecycle.
In a monthly report, DFC broke down the reasons why it didn't think Kinect would be a hit. Citing factors like the lack of more complex control options to the software available for the peripheral. Foremost among DFC's reservations, however, was based on Microsoft itself. DFC believes that the company is better at working with business software than entertainment products because with business software Microsoft can adopt what others have already done and fold that into Microsoft's own products. The problem is developing hit entertainment products simply does not follow that model. Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed, DFC said. While citing the Zune's failure to take down the iPod is an example that proves this point, DFC itself acknowledged that the Xbox consoles are an exception to the rule.
Obviously this is just analyst speaking, and many times in history they have been wrong. Kinect's launch titles do seem a bit weak, and seem to be reaching out to a different crowd. Hopefully as we move closer to the launch of Kinect, more hardcore gamers will jump on-board with more games using Kinect's features. We all know Kinect has a chance to do something special in gaming. It is all up to Microsoft on how they can make it hapen.